The Legislature finished its 2023 General Session last Friday evening, March 3rd. In the area of tax policy, we've prepared the chart above to summarize the tax cuts passed this year. 

The tax cuts that will go into effect in the next year add up to $408 million. Three-fifth of that amount goes to the highest-earning one-fifth of Utahns, and four-fifths goes to the top two-fifths. That leaves just one-fifth for the 60% of Utahns earning under $92,000. Unfortunately, these changes do nothing to improve the overall regressivity of Utah's current tax structure. 

The picture improves slightly if we count the $200 million elimination of the state sales tax on unprepared food. Because the food tax is the most regressive element of our most regressive tax, removing it does reduce (but not eliminate) the regressivity in Utah's tax structure. (This part of HB 54 will only go into effect in 2025 if voters approve a Constitutional amendment ending the earmarking of income tax for education in November 2024. That earmark was broadened in 1996 to add higher education and again in 2020 via Amendment G to add all programs for children and for disabled Utahns to the permitted uses of income tax revenues.)

To clarify, we consider Utah's overall tax structure to be regressive because the highest income Utahns pay the lowest share of their incomes in state and local taxes, based on the analysis at www.ITEP.org/WhoPays/Utah. 

We welcome the proposed elimination of the grocery tax and the reduced regressivity it would bring, especially since it benefits all low-income Utahns, including the considerable number who never file a tax return. We also welcome the much smaller but still beneficial impacts of the new non-refundable Child Tax Credit (CTC) and slightly expanded non-refundable Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). Here are some specifics on those: 

• Elimination of the $200 million state grocery tax reduces taxes on the lowest-income fifth of Utahns (those earning under $31,000) by $18 million, and it reduces taxes on the lowest-income two-fifths (those earning under $59,000) by a total of $48 million.
• The new Child Tax Credit (CTC) reduces taxes for those same two-fifths of Utahns by $9 million. It also makes Utah the 13th state with our own CTC, though NCSL's website indicates that ours will be one of just four that are non-refundable. 
• The slightly expanded Utah EITC adds a reduction of $1 million for the low- and moderate-income 40% of Utahns. Sadly, it still excludes the lowest-income 80-90% of Utah's federal EITC recipients because it remains non-refundable.

Those three tax reductions add up to $58 million for low- and moderate-income Utahns, which means that less than 10% of the overall tax cut reaches the 40% of the population that needs it most. (For more about why refundability is critical for the effectiveness of family tax credits like the ETC and CTC, please visit https://www.utahfamilytaxcredits.org/learnmore/.)

Unfortunately, the majority of the $608 million in tax cuts goes to Utahns earning six-figure incomes, who neither need nor are asking for tax cuts. In fact, the survey conducted during the legislative session by the Deseret News and Hinckley Institute found that just 18% of Utahns wanted a tax cut. The overwhelming majority supported investing more in education, infrastructure, saving the Great Salt Lake, and other building blocks of Utah's future prosperity and success: 

 This result is consistent with previous polling on the question of whether Utah should be cutting taxes. Previous polls include....

• Deseret News/Hinckley Institute 2022
• Deseret News/Hinckley Institute 2021
• Deseret News/Hinckley Institute 2020
• Utah Foundation 2020
• Envision Utah 2020

Clearly the public is more concerned than Utah's political leaders about the billions of dollars in unmet needs identified by the Invest In Utah's Future coalition. The public is probably also aware of the two biggest problems with cutting the income tax: 

1. Cutting the income tax leads to higher property taxes as the local districts struggle to make up the lost education revenues. And in fact, the last 14 years have seen inflation-adjusted per-student local education revenue (from property taxes) rise 12% while inflation-adjusted per-student state funding (from the income tax) fell 2.5%. Given the spike in local property taxes in the last year or two, it was disappointing to see that the Legislature failed to pass even very modest measures like HB 260 that would have devoted $5 million to expand eligibility for the state's property tax relief programs to more low- and moderate-income households. 
2.  Cutting $400 million from the income tax breaks down to well over $500 per student diverted from the main source of education funding. For the median income family of four, they gain about $200 in tax cuts -- but lose over $1,000 that now will not be invested every year in their own kids' education. 

Unfortunately, the Utah Legislature has proven once again that it is all too ready to give in to the tax cut temptation, even though Utah already has the 7th lowest taxes in the nation according to WalletHub, and despite the fact that we are already a top 10 state nationally for our business-friendly taxes, according to the Tax Foundation. 

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WE'VE POSTED A VIDEO WALK-THROUGH OF THE CHART ABOVE AT https://fb.watch/jcAUe4-Rqr/ 

At two large pre-legislative events in the second week of January, hundreds of attendees heard Utah's Senate President proudly assert that Utah was the only state that increased education funding during the pandemic. 

Every year, especially around the end of every legislative session, Utah's political leaders proclaim that they are putting record amounts of funding into education. 

Unfortunately, these claims are contradicted by the data published by the Utah State Board of Education in its Superintendent's Annual Report. 

Real FY21 and FY22 State + Local Education Funding Did Not Rise -- It Fell

These data are from the USBE Superintendent's Annual Reports, adjusted for inflation using the standard CPI-U inflation index from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. They show that Utah's real (inflation-adjusted) state + local education funding fell in both FY21 and FY22, both in total and on a per-student basis. (During those two fiscal years, the Utah Legislature passed over $300 million in income tax cuts.) 

State Education Funding Has Fallen While Local Education Funding Has Risen

We have heard legislative leaders assert every year that they have appropriated record amounts for education. We have also sometimes heard them say that local education funding (from property taxes) has not kept up, and that is the reason that overall education funding is inadequate to reduce Utah's largest-in-the-nation class sizes or address our high rates of new teacher turnover. Yet the data from USBE show two trends that contradict these claims, as illustrated in the chart above: 

1. 1. Real per-student state education funding was 2.5% lower in 2022 than in 2008 (the peak year for education funding before the Great Recession). 
   2. Real per-student local education funding was 12% higher in 2022 than in 2008. 

It is also worth noting, in this context, that permanently cutting the state income tax rate, as the Legislature has done in recent years and is considering doing once again this year, tends to put additional pressure on local property taxes to make up the difference for schools. The income tax and the property tax are the two main sources of funding for education. If policymakers intentionally and repeatedly undermine one of them, that inevitably creates pressure to increase the other (or allow it to increase naturally, as has happened the last two years with property taxes as home values have shot up).  

Can We Have Record Education Funding and Record Tax Cuts?

Legislative leaders have used their incorrect claims that Utah increased education funding during the pandemic to bolster their case that Utah can have it all -- record high levels of education funding and record tax cuts. But USBE data reveal that, in fact, we cannot have it all, that tradeoffs exist, and that hard choices must be made. If we have record tax cuts, we likely will not have record levels of education funding. If we want to strengthen education finance for the long-term betterment of our children and our state, we ought to consider what we are giving up when we give in to the tax cut temptation.  

One Final Comment: Inputs vs Outcomes

Needless to say, this entire discussion concerns only inputs to, not outcomes of, our K-12 public education system. But, as one superintendent wisely observed over a decade ago, "We cannot have the best school system in the country and be the lowest in the country in funding. We can't be first if we're always last." 

While there is little doubt that Utah does more with less in our public schools better than probably any other state, there are several key educational outcome measures that most concern Voices for Utah Children: 

• Our high school graduation rates are no higher than or below national averages for nearly every racial and ethnic category. 
• Our high school graduation rate gaps between haves and have-nots and between majority and minority groups are larger than nationally.
• Our rate of college degrees, an area where Utah's older generations outpaced the nation, has fallen behind the nation's among our younger generation, the Millennial generation, based on Census data for Utahns age 25-34. 

Closing these gaps and regaining our once enviable lead will require substantial new investments at every step in the pipeline, from expanding pre-K and full-day kindergarten options to reducing class sizes and new teacher turnover in our elementary, middle, and high schools, to ensuring that more of our sons and daughters finish what they start at our public colleges and universities. 

 Note: The charts in this blog post are from Voices for Utah Children's forthcoming "Children's Budget Report 2023" that will be published in February 2023.

Both graphs are available for download here. 

Methodology and Location of Data  

Utah’s education funding rises each year, but so does the student population. And prices rise due to inflation, which has been worse the last year than in 40 years. So how can we judge whether education funding is really going up, as our political leaders always claim? There is one metric considered to be the gold standard for this purpose: inflation-adjusted per-student spending. To calculate this metric, you need three pieces of data. The locations of these items are detailed below:

1. State, Local, and Federal Education Spending

Source: Utah State Board of Education Superintendent’s Annual Report at www.schools.utah.gov/superintendentannualreport

Direct Document Link: Statewide Total: Revenue and Expenditures by Fund, June 30, 2022 https://www.schools.utah.gov/file/674392fc-3946-4ba2-ba19-da7f024f3fe5 

Comments: In the charts above, we used the state and local education spending data

2. K-12 Student Population

Source: Utah State Board of Education Superintendent’s Annual Report at www.schools.utah.gov/superintendentannualreport

Direct Document Link:  Fall Enrollment by Grade Level and Demographics, October 1, School Year 2022-2023  https://www.schools.utah.gov/file/5c8e2fac-55dc-4f0a-bf6a-6889133e4ffe 

Comments: Be sure to use the fall enrollment data from the fall of the year you are analyzing. For example, for FY/SY22, use October 2021 enrollment data.   

3. Inflation Index CPI-U

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statisticshttps://www.bls.gov/data/home.htm 

Direct Document Link:  All Urban Consumers (Current Series) (Consumer Price Index - CPI) https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu  U.S. city average, All items - CUUR0000SA0....then use “Annual Averages”  

Google Sheet with all collected data, sources & formulas

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fTy8wKHY6Di33eRLTcM7Ce1B5Caw10sb/edit#gid=534909710

* * SEE COMPLETE ANALYSIS OF THE LEGISLATURE'S $400 MILLION TAX CUT PROPOSAL AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PAGE * *

The 2023 Legislature's annual seven-week General Session has begun! At the top of the agenda for the Governor and Legislative leadership: tax cuts. 

While Voices for Utah Children and many other advocates for Utah's most vulnerable populations are deeply concerned about the long-term detrimental effect of tax cuts on state and local governments' abilities to meet their obligations to Utahns (see www.InvestInUtahsFuture.org for more about that), we are also cognizant of the political reality that tax cuts are popular with Utah's political leadership (in contrast to public opinion).

If there's one thing Voices for Utah Children has learned following tax policy in recent years, it's that not all tax cuts are created equal. Hence this guide to the tax cuts being proposed this year. Note, the legislature has since changed the proposed income tax cut from $200m to $400m further resulting in even greater tax cuts mostly for Utah's top income earners. 

Ranking the Tax Cut Proposals

We rank the tax cuts by regressivity -- do they make our overall tax system more or less regressive than it currently is? Regressivity is about fairness. Utah's current overall state + local tax system is regressive/unfair in the sense that the highest income households pay a lower overall share of their incomes in state and local taxes than low- and middle-income households.

The chart above illustrates whether each individual proposed tax cut would make Utah's taxes even more unfair, or would it reduce the inequities in the current tax structure. We illustrate the impact of the proposals in the chart below two different ways:

1) By share of the tax cut: How does it slice the pie? Who gets the big pieces and who's stuck with the crumbs (or nothing at all)? 

2) By dollar amounts: How much does an average family benefit each year at each income level? (we provided this information for each tax cut that is available to all taxpayers but not for the more targeted ones that only go to a smaller subset like the Social Security and child tax credits)

Important Background Information

What are the major taxes in Utah and who pays them?

• The sales tax: Our most regressive tax -- meaning it takes a bigger bite percentage-wise out of the incomes of low- and middle-income families than their high-income neighbors. (And same goes for the gas tax.)
• The property tax: Not as regressive as the sales or gas taxes but still costs lower-income families a greater share of their incomes than higher-income families, including non-homeowners who pay it indirectly through their rent.
• The income tax: Utah's only non-regressive tax. The only one that lines up with Utah's income distribution, following the 3/5--1/5 Rule: Three-fifths of all Utah income is earned by the top one-fifth of taxpayers, and three-fifths of the income tax is paid by that same high-income group. KEEP IN MIND: When the Legislature cuts the income tax rate, not only do they make our tax system more regressive overall, they also put more pressure on local property taxes, which tend to rise to make up for the lost education funding when the income tax rate is cut. As a result, cutting the income tax means a tax shift from state to local and from the highest-income Utahns to middle-class and low-income households. 

See more details about who pays which taxes in Utah and how our overall tax structure is regressive at www.ITEP.org/WhoPays/Utah. 

How Do These Proposed Tax Cuts Compare to Last Year?

Last year, the 2022 Utah Legislature passed SB 59 -- about $200 million of permanent tax cuts.

• The majority of the breaks went to the highest income fifth of Utahns, those earning above about $130,000.
• Just 6% of last year's tax cuts went to the bottom two-fifths of Utahns, those earning under about $60,000 a year.

2022 SB 59 Tax Cuts Summary

ANALYSIS OF THE 2023 LEGISLATURE'S $400 MILLION TAX CUT PROPOSAL

Every December Congress meets to try to pass all the urgent items they didn't manage to get done the rest of the year. Usually the list includes tax policy changes demanded by one well-heeled special interest or another. This year is no different. At the top of the lobbyists' wish list is reportedly "extending soon-to-expire business tax breaks... affecting research and development costs, investment deductions and debt write-offs."

But what about the tax policy issues directly impacting Congress's youngest constituents? It's true that children don't have fancy lawyers and lobbyists and PACs making big campaign contributions. But they do have a few scrappy nonprofits speaking up for their interests and backed by millions of parents. And at the top of the children's wish list this month is improvements to the federal Child Tax Credit. 

The federal CTC does a world of good every year for families all over Utah and across the nation.  Well over a third of Utahns qualify for the CTC every year when they file their taxes. That's over half a million households! And the amount of the CTC received by these Utah families exceeds $1.6 billion -- that's billion with a b. Wow! 

But there is a problem with the Child Tax Credit. Tens of thousands of Utah families fail to qualify every year for the full credit of $2,000 per child for a simple reason: The parents work low-wage jobs -- often working long hours -- but their low hourly wages still leave their incomes below the minimum level required under current tax law to qualify for the full credit -- over $29,000 of income for a single parent with two kids, for example. In other words, a single mom working full-time at $12/hour makes too little to qualify for the full CTC under its current rules. 

That means over 150,000 Utah kids every year are left out and left behind -- and these are the very kids who would benefit most from the proven positive impacts of refundable tax credits like the CTC -- including better educational outcomes and higher labor force participation rates years later when they become adults.  

And it gets worse: While most of the kids excluded from the CTC are white, disproportionate numbers of them are from Utah's communities of color, including an estimated 50,000 Latino children, comprising 29% of Utah’s Latino child population, as well as 6,000 Native American children, comprising 75% of Utah’s Native American children. This means that a tax credit that has incredible potential to reduce societal disparities is instead making them worse. 

That's a real shame, because the CTC does a lot to reduce child poverty already. National data from the Census Bureau's Supplemental Poverty Measure has found that refundable tax credits, including both the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit, reduced child poverty from where it would have been -- 18% or one-in-six children -- to 12.5% or one-in-eight children in 2019. That's over 4 million children lifted out of poverty. And if we could make the full CTC available to all the lower-income kids now being left out, that would help an additional 19 million children who need the help most. 

Even if Congress lacks the political consensus to restore the temporary 2021 CTC boost that cut child poverty last year by 36%, there are several more incremental ideas that would help a lot of kids: 

• Implement a more rapid phase-in of the refundable credit, as proposed by Sen. Mitt Romney in his Family Security Act 2.0 proposal from earlier this year.
• Make the full credit available without a phase-in for families with children under the age of 6. 
• Exempt from the phase-in grandparents acting as custodial parents and parents whose disabilities impact their ability to work.
• Institute a look-back policy that counts previous years' earned income in determining whether a work requirement has been met.
• Restore the pre-2017 status quo where all children in immigrant families could receive the CTC.

The role of Utah's Congressional delegation in any Child Tax Credit improvements passed this month is expected to be one of the keys to success. After all, it was Utah Senator Mike Lee who demanded that Congress include improvements to the CTC in the 2017 TCJA legislation (though that law also cut off an estimated 1 million immigrant children without Social Security numbers from the credit). And it is Senator Romney who has put far-reaching additional improvements on the table with his Family Security Act proposals. 

If you agree that Congress should act this month to improve the Child Tax Credit, let your Representative and our two Senators hear from you!  Lifting more kids out of poverty would truly be a wonderful holiday gift for Utah's children this year. 

The story of tax policy in the 2022 Legislative session is a tale of two tax cuts:

• • A large, top-heavy cut to the income tax rate from 4.95% to 4.85%. How large? $164 million. How top-heavy? 63% of it goes to the top 20% of taxpayers. all of whom have six-figure incomes. 
  • The creation of a small ($16 million, just one-tenth the size of the income tax rate cut) state-level Earned Income Tax Credit. The EITC is widely considered to be the nation's most effective anti-poverty program, since it reduces poverty by promoting work and self-sufficiency. Special recognition goes to Rep. Mike Winder, who, in his final legislative session, leaped at the opportunity to sponsor HB 307 and persuade his colleagues that 2022 was the year to make Utah the 31st state with our own EITC, something that advocates for reducing poverty have sought for decades.

The new Earned Income Tax Credit is non-refundable, which means it will not reach the lowest-income fifth of Utah workers who need it the most, including those struggling to work their way out of intergenerational poverty. About 80% of the value of the federal EITC is the refundable portion, which offsets other federal taxes paid by the lowest income workers. Most state level EITCs are also refundable, allowing them to offset the sales, gas, and property taxes paid by low-income workers to state and local governments. In Utah, the lowest income workers pay, on average, 7.5% of their incomes in those taxes, which is a higher share of their incomes than that paid in all state and local taxes by the highest income Utahns. The new nonrefundable EITC will help moderate income Utahns (the second fifth of the income distribution), primarily those earning between $30,000 and $55,000. Moderate income Utah families certainly need the help, so the creation of a Utah EITC is a great step in the direction of better tax policy. We hope that Utah will soon follow in the footsteps of other states that began with a non-refundable EITC and then decided to make it refundable.  

The income tax rate reduction continues an unfortunate pattern in recent decades of tax breaks for those who need them the least -- tax breaks that both increase inequality and starve Utah's schools of the resources they need to succeed. In 2007 we cut the top income tax rate from 7% to 5%, then in 2018 to 4.95%, now this year to 4.85%.  The income tax is the only non-regressive tax Utah has, the only one that actually lines up with Utah's income distribution. Ironically, as income inequality worsens, it is also Utah's fastest growing source of revenue, which offered Utah our best hope for seeing our education system benefit from Utah's rapid economic growth -- until we began targeting that rapidly growing revenue source for tax cuts.  

Here is a summary chart of this year's tax cuts and how they impact Utahns in each fifth of Utah's income distribution:

Source: Utah Legislative Fiscal Analyst (excluding the $15 million corporate portion of the income tax rate cut) 

Another way to think about the income tax rate reduction from 4.95% to 4.85% is to consider how it impacts a median income family of four. According to the Legislative Fiscal Analyst, such a family receives a tax cut of $98. But when you divide the $164 million price tag of the income tax rate reduction by Utah’s K-12 student population of about 675,000, then multiply by the two kids that the median income family of four has in school, you see that that average family that is gaining $98 in a tax break is giving up $485 that is now not going to be spent on their kids’ education every year. Not going to be spent on smaller class sizes or more experienced teachers or more up-to-date technology. Not going to be spent on closing the gaps in our education system between majority and minority groups and between haves and have-nots, gaps which are larger than nationally. 

It's also important to see this year's income tax rate cut in the context of decades of top-heavy tax breaks passed by the Legislature. According to the Utah State Tax Commission, Utah has been passing, on average, $100 million a year of new tax breaks for over 35 years. This now adds up to over $3.5 billion not available every year to invest in Utah's children -- their education, health care, and basic economic security. In fact, the Invest in Utah's Future Coalition has identified over $5 billion of unmet needs in a wide range of areas of public responsibility. 

For a full summary of this year's legislative actions on taxes, you can....

• Download our Powerpoint slideshow summary 
• View a video recording of our presentation "Utah Legislature's 2022 Tax Changes: What happened and how will it impact Utah children" at https://fb.watch/bpbVN8Mwms/ 

Voices for Utah Children Statement on the News that the Legislature Is Considering a Constitutional Amendment to End the Education Earmark of Income Tax Revenue:

A Constitutional Amendment Won’t Help If Utah Keeps Cutting Taxes

It is understandable that Utah legislators would want greater flexibility in how they can use public revenues. But there is a much larger problem that increased flexibility would do nothing about and would even delay solving: the chronic public revenue shortages that afflict our state following decades of tax cutting.

Utah has been cutting taxes by an average of $100 million annually for at least the last 35 years. According to Tax Commission data (see slide #8), this now adds up to about $3.5 billion in revenue not available for Utah’s annual state budget every year. As a result, public revenues are now lower than they've been in half a century relative to Utahns' incomes. The decisions in recent decades by Utah's Governors and Legislatures to give in to the tax cut temptation are at the root of Utah’s chronic revenue shortages in nearly every imaginable area of public responsibility, as documented by the Invest in Utah’s Future Coalition.

This year’s decision to pass a $164 million cut in the income tax rate from 4.95% to 4.85% (SB59 1st sub fiscal note) is an unfortunate example of this impulse toward thinking about short-term gain rather than the long-term needs of our state. This change gives a middle-class family of four a $98 tax cut, but it also means that $485 will now not be invested in that family’s two children in school. ($164 million divided by 675,000 children in Utah’s K-12 education system multiplied by two kids)

Every Utah family with children should ask the Governor and Legislative leaders, “Will you use this increased flexibility to enact even more tax cuts that deprive our children of the education that they need and deserve?” If our leaders are not prepared to answer that question unequivocally, then Utahns should know that such an amendment would just enhance budget writers' ability to "rob Peter to pay Paul" and not address the root cause of Utah’s problem.